What inspired your belief that good fortune is not simply a matter of chance and that people can turn serendipitous encounters or developments to their own advantage?
This belief was inspired by a combination of personal experience and scientific research. During my time as an entrepreneur, I realised how much of my own professional success was driven by moments of serendipity, such as chance meetings at conferences that eventually led to investments. Then, my research − first at the London School of Economics and later at New York University and USC Marshall − showed that successful people are often very good at cultivating serendipity. I am not talking about the blind luck that just happens to us but the “active luck” that is about how we turn unexpected events into positive outcomes. It is not the random encounter itself that creates value – it is what we do with it.
In your book “The Serendipity Mindset: The Art and Science of Creating Good Luck”, you present a strategy to connect the dots between seemingly random events and leverage them to achieve a successful and fulfilling life. Can you explain the essence of that strategy?
The essence is: It is all about noticing that unexpected events are potentially valuable, and then doing something with them. Imagine you accidentally spill coffee over the person next to you in a coffeeshop. They look at you angrily but you sense there might be something there. Now, you have a number of options to do something with this unexpected moment. One is to just say sorry and walk out − and to wonder what could have happened had you spoken to that person. The other option is to start a conversation − and the person ends up as a co-founder of a venture or the love of your life. The point is: The same random event can lead to lots of different outcomes, depending on what we do with it if we see its significance, especially also in unexpected “negative” moments.
In today’s often unpredictable and fast-moving world, what advice would you offer to business leaders to help them see unexpected developments – or even mishaps – as a source of opportunity that they can exploit to help drive their company’s success?
The key is to develop a serendipity mindset by reframing challenges as opportunities. It is about moving from pretending to know everything − to project absolute certainty − to giving a clear indication of what is important and where we want to go but with an openness to the unexpected. It is about providing clarity rather than pretending to know everything. Then, serendipitously so, the most amazing insights emerge.
Does serendipity have a role to play in entrepreneurship and innovation? If so, what do you see as the key ingredients to foster a “serendipity mindset” among teams and empower them to think outside the box and create new solutions?
Yes, serendipity is often crucial in both entrepreneurship and innovation. There are many ways to cultivate environments for serendipity − but it is often about simple things. For example, in the weekly team meeting, you can ask something like: “What surprised you last week?” It is a simple question but people might say “it surprised me that people use our product differently than we thought” or “it surprised me that our incentive system doesn’t seem to work with Gen Y”. This helps us to spot unexpected insights but it also reduces the risk of spotting mistakes too late. It is about legitimising the unexpected as an important source of information − rather than pretending that it doesn’t happen.
Does the concept of creating your own luck also apply to investing? In other words: Do you believe in the idea of “serendipity in investing”, where investors can use their insights, judgement and observations to achieve positive results?
Absolutely. Many investors credit serendipity as being the key to their success. Investing is all about placing bets, about hedging, etc. Investors can actively create luck by staying open and curious, especially in how they interpret information. It is about connecting the dots, about seeing patterns where others do not. They often see bridges where others see holes, and they often trust their intuition to do so.
Can your findings also be applied to financial markets? In other words: Is it possible to create good luck for investors – or do you think that positive investment outcomes are first and foremost a matter of skill?
It is often a probability game. Can you notice unexpected information − “weak signals” − earlier than others? For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, some investors noticed early signs in secondary markets and made decisions that seemed risky at the time but ultimately led to significant gains. Their openness to unexpected shifts allowed them to turn volatility into opportunity. Financial markets are complex, and those who are attuned to patterns − especially emergent ones − are better positioned to capitalise on them and to understand when they are being disrupted.
Do you believe that attitudes towards chance and good fortune differ markedly across regions or cultures?
Yes, cultural attitudes toward chance and serendipity differ significantly. For example, in the US, there is a cultural emphasis on individual agency − making your own luck. In contrast, in other contexts there is more of an emphasis on fate and harmony with one’s environment, which changes how people perceive and act on opportunities. And in other contexts, it is all about planning and “minimising chance”. But the interesting thing is: It is often also about the best of both worlds: For example, some of the most inspiring Swiss investors I know are extremely good at planning but they also have an openness to the unexpected. In the past, a number of serendipitous moments have trans¬formed our understanding of the world. Examples include Archimedes’ “Eureka” moment, Isaac Newton’s discovery of gravity while sitting beneath an apple tree or Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin.
Can you think of a more recent example where a chance event has led to a major breakthrough, scientific or otherwise?
A recent example of serendipity is the development of the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine by BioNTech in collaboration with Pfizer. BioNTech had been working on mRNA technology for years, primarily with a focus on cancer treatments. However, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit, BioNTech’s co-founder quickly realized that this mRNA technology could be adapted to develop a vac¬cine against the virus. This is an example of how prior scientific exploration, combined with an unforeseen global crisis, unex¬pectedly led to a life-saving innovation. But importantly, serendipity also often happens in our day-to-day lives – like when you look for your car keys and unexpectedly find something that had been missing for ages. That is the beautiful micro-serendipity of our lives.
What advice would you offer to members of the Next Generation when it comes to training their own “serendipity muscle” to help them get the most out of life – whether they are embarking on a career or seeking to expand their social network?
Start with small steps, just like when you go to the gym. For example, in your next interview, use a few “hooks”: Instead of just responding “I’m a student” to the question “what do you do?” you could answer “I’m studying finance, but what I’m really interested in is the future of education, and reading bibliographies of politicians”. These are three potential “dots” where someone might answer: “That is such a coincidence. I am also excited about xyz”. It is about increasing the opportunity space. There are many of these practices in my book, but the point is: Start small, see it work and then build that serendipity muscle.
What was the single most important chance encounter or event in your life so far and how did you use it to your favour?
My whole life has been an array of chance encounters but my favourite happened in New York, right at the outset of Covid. I unexpectedly reconnected with an old friend. We fell in love, and fast forward a few years and we have a three-year-old daughter.
